Latest Polls
One poll per organisation · Party vote % of decided voters · Most recent five
| Pollster | Fieldwork | n | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll Trend
Party support over the five most recent polls · Chronological order
Poll Averages
Votes normalised to 7 major parties · Weighted by sample size × recency decay
| Method | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | LAB lead |
|---|
Seat Projections
Sainte-Laguë · 120-seat Parliament · 5% threshold · TPM guaranteed ≥4 electorate seats
Bloc Totals
Weighted average projection · Majority = 61 seats · NZ First counted separately
Monte Carlo Simulation
50,000 runs · Per-party sampling σ = 0.9–1.0 pp · Correlated bloc systematic σ = 1.2 pp
| Scenario | Parties | Median seats | Probability |
|---|
Change Detection
Compared to previous run
Analysis
Weekly AI-generated electoral analysis · Published by The Wayward Hobbit · Updates every Monday
Vote Compass
15 policy questions · See which NZ parties align with your views · Takes ~3 minutes
Answer each question using the five-point scale. Your responses are never stored — everything runs locally in your browser. Skip any question you'd rather not answer.
Based on your answers, here's how your views align with each party's policy positions. Results are indicative — no quiz can fully capture political complexity.
Party Policies
Key policies per party · Click "Fact-check" for AI analysis of evidence base and likely effects
National Debt Clock
Total Crown Borrowings · Same methodology as debtclock.nz · Ticking in real time · Source: NZ Treasury HYEFU 2025